Primary sector workforce skill projections - Analysis of dairy farming, beef & sheep farming, and the forestry production industries
Organisation: Primary Industries Capability Alliance
Published: August 2016
Country: New Zealand
Research type: Quantitative
Report showing how the skills of the workforce in the dairy farming, beef & sheep farming, and forestry production industries are projected to change over time. These projections are compared to targets set out in the Future Capabilities Report in 2014. Scarlatti’s Inchworm model was used for predictive analysis, with inputs calibrated using data extracted from Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Database Infrastructure and the Ministry of Education. We show that under a ‘business as usual’ scenario for training and recruitment, the skills of the workforce in scope will not reach the targets set out in the Future Capabilities Report. For the targets to be achieved, a significant increase in sector-specific training is required across the three sectors, even when modelling an increase in new recruits with L5+ general qualifications. In the dairy farming industry, this requirement translates to about a ¬50% increase. In the forestry production industry, a ¬threefold increase is required. In beef & sheep farming, the industry needs to increase training volumes by about 7-8 times.